Where baseball is eternal
It's a game that only lives in our dreams, but it's a nice dream to have.
I’m not even sure how I stumbled upon the website - probably some sponsored post on social media. But I’ve become a fan of Eternal Baseball.
The concept of Eternal Baseball is almost ridiculously simple: imagine the best players each franchise could produce taking on each other in a season-long battle. For example, Babe Ruth would come to the plate against guys like Bob Gibson and Sandy Koufax every day - would he take them deep or would these masters of the mound make him look foolish? All the creators of the idea needed was a computer simulation they could use to recreate these seasons and they could begin. (I’d love to know if they prepare teams so I could re-create an all-year one expansion league. If the ‘62 Mets would win 40 games in a season against the likes of the ‘69 Expos, ‘61 Senators, ‘77 Blue Jays, etc. then, yes, they were really bad.)
But there were a couple other wrinkles they addressed. One of them was preserving the Montreal Expos franchise as its own entity, cleaving it from the Washington Nationals. That was the only such division in the league created by “Web” and “Roto.” who describe themselves as “simply alternative baseball historians that are writing and chronicling fictional seasons of our favorite game.” They didn’t separate, say, the St. Louis Browns and Baltimore Orioles, for example.
The second was their creation of the Birmingham Knights, a fictitious team that would surely play at historic Rickwood Field and be comprised of the best players the Negro Leagues had to offer - an all-time All-Star team of guys who got little or no shot at the then-segregated major leagues. By adding that team to the American League and rebalancing the leagues to a quartet of four-team divisions apiece - with Houston and Milwaukee restored to their “proper” place in the leagues they first called home - they came up with the original alignment and schedule for Eternal Baseball season one, which commenced in the fall of 2020. (The league conducts most of its season in the major league’s offseason, from November to late May, with the playoffs in June.) The only difference in subsequent seasons (put in place for season three) was the addition in the playoffs of two wild-card teams. These became necessary because the remaining teams saddled with being in the AL East with the Yankees had no shot at the postseason. This year both Baltimore and Boston were the AL wildcards, as the top three in the AL East had the three best records in the league. (Meanwhile Birmingham won the AL South with a losing record.)
Hence, we find the weakness of the Eternal Baseball concept. As a fan of the Detroit Tigers, I’ve watched them win the AL North in seasons one and two with over 100 wins both seasons before falling flat in season three with an 88-74 record. (One key to the variation is a factor placed in the simulation that randomly makes a player outperform or underperform by up to 30%. So the question is whether the Tigers outperformed in season one and two or underperformed in the most recent season.)
More to my point, though, if you are a fan of one of the original sixteen major league teams in Eternal Baseball you will more than likely be rewarded with a winning season. I did a study of the three seasons and, out of 48 possible team seasons by these sixteen teams, all but six led to winning records. On the aggregate, the worst team of that group is the Minnesota Twins (who were the original Washington Senators of “first in war, first in peace, last in the American League” lore) who are 242-244 overall. Out of 28 possible playoff spots, original sixteen franchises have secured 23, and Birmingham has won three of the other five by dominating the AL South, which has no original teams. Only Montreal and the Los Angeles Angels have broken the stranglehold by winning division titles in season two.
It’s not that the expansion teams can’t have good seasons, but the best of the group (Montreal) is the same 242-244 overall that the worst original team is. And on the other end of the scale is the hapless Texas Rangers team that began life as the second rendition of the Washington Senators, who were also first, first, and last. They have just 164 wins over three seasons and two 110-loss seasons, even playing in the weak AL South.
So I think the league is due for an overhaul, or perhaps just adding parity - after all, this is a fantasy league so rules are somewhat arbitrary anyway. My idea would be to divide the leagues into two sets of teams, one being the original sixteen and the others being the expansion teams. And it works reasonably well in making things competitive, as you’ll see by the season three records of the teams being placed in the respective divisions:
AL Originals East: New York 117-45, Boston 102-60, Baltimore 100-62, Cleveland 99-63. This division would be a heavyweight fight as all four made the season three playoffs.
AL Originals West: Oakland 96-66, Chicago 89-73, Detroit 88-74, Minnesota 82-80. Given Detroit’s 100-win history they could be a favorite but anyone could win this one.
AL Expansion East: Birmingham 76-86, Toronto 71-91, Milwaukee 64-98, Tampa Bay 51-111. Most likely Birmingham would cakewalk this division like they did the AL South, but Toronto might have something to say about that as they are released from the powerful AL East.
AL Expansion West: Los Angeles 83-79, Kansas City 72-90, Seattle 64-98, Texas 52-110. This one could be a battle with LA as a favorite.
NL Originals East: Cincinnati 97-65, Philadelphia 93-69, Atlanta 85-77, Pittsburgh 80-82. Two of these teams came from a tremendously competitive NL North - the one division with all original teams - so I would give them the edge over Philly and Atlanta.
NL Originals West: San Francisco 100-62, St. Louis 95-67, Los Angeles 93-69, Chicago 92-70. Three of these teams made the season three playoffs and the fourth missed by a game. And if it feels weird to have Atlanta and Cincinnati in the East and Chicago and St. Louis in the West, well, I’m rectifying a long-standing geographical wrong.
NL Expansion East: Montreal 92-70, New York 72-90, Miami 67-95, Washington 63-99. While this looks like a blowout on paper, Montreal has suffered through a 57-105 season one so they may have overperformed to get to 92 wins.
NL Expansion West: San Diego 72-90, Houston 65-97, Colorado 61-101, Arizona 59-103. The poster child for this concept, as it may not doom these teams to more wretched seasons. Houston underperfomed this past season, though, so I would put my money on them.
If they wanted to shake up the Eternal Baseball world, maybe this would be worth a shot for a season or two. Most likely the teams that normally dominate (the Yankees and Giants have won two pennants apiece, with the Cardinals and Knights garnering one) would still survive the playoffs, but this would give those forlorn teams who wouldn’t have a chance otherwise a shot at glory.