Right about the end of the 2023 minor league season, I made a contention in this post.
I went and found a lot of data points to try and prove my case:
I looked up the records of each full-season minor league affiliate for each team from 2012-2015 and ranked their aggregate 1-30. In this case the #1 team for each season was Colorado in 2012, Houston in 2013, the Mets in 2014 and Houston again in 2015. At the bottom (#30) it went, respectively, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Seattle.
I then ranked the major league teams by record from 2016-19, assuming players would rise through the systems in that span. With the #1 rank it was Chicago Cubs in 2016, Los Angeles Dodgers in 2017, Boston for 2018, and Houston in 2019. At #30 it was, respectively, Minnesota, a tie between Detroit and San Francisco, Baltimore, and Detroit again.
Then I looked up the minor league system rank given by the scouts. From 2012-15 the number 1 systems were deemed to be San Diego, St. Louis, Minnesota, and the Chicago Cubs. At the bottom (#30) it was the White Sox, Angels, Angels again, and Detroit.
If my theory held, we should have had a result where the bad minor leagues bore rotten fruit four years later. But it wasn’t often the case:
2016: Colorado and San Diego should have been good, Cincinnati and the Chicago White Sox should have been bad. But San Diego ranked 27 and Colorado wasn’t much better at 20. On the other hand, Cincinnati was also 27 and the White Sox were 19. Looking back four years to 2012, the #1 overall Cubs had a #20 organizational rank and #29 overall organizational record, while the #30 Minnesota Twins had a #22 organizational rank and 14th-best record.
2017: Houston and St. Louis should have been good, Milwaukee and the LA Angels should have been bad. We all know Houston won the World Series, so I guess they were good. St. Louis ranked #12, which meant they were in playoff contention. So I had those somewhat pegged. But Milwaukee was also a playoff contender (#10 record) while the Angels weren’t far behind at #13. Looking back four years to 2013, the #1 overall Dodgers had a #21 organizational rank and #24 overall organizational record, while the Tigers and Giants who tied for the bottom had #29 and #26 organizational ranks, respectively. But while the Tigers finished #20 in organizational record that year, the Giants were 6th.
2018: The Mets and Minnesota should have been good, while the Phillies and Angels should have been bottom-feeders. But the Mets were a mediocre #20 rank, while the Twins checked in one spot ahead of them at #19. Amazingly enough, the Phillies and Angels were tied at #17, meaning these four disparate teams ended up pretty much in the same place. Yet the #1 overall record Boston had was foreshadowed by a #4 organizational rank and #8 aggregate record back in 2014, while the tanking Orioles had a decent organization ranking of #13 that year (their best of the four-year period) but a #22 organizational record.
2019: Well, Houston should have been good again and I suppose winning a pennant counts. But the Cubs had a three-season playoff run end by finishing with a #14 rank. Seattle and Detroit? Well, they pretty much played down to expectations. Looking back four years to 2015, the #1 overall Astros had a #12 organizational rank but led everyone in organizational record, while the #30 Detroit Tigers had the worst organization and 25th-best record.
Basically, what I concluded is that things are up to the individual player in learning how to win. One thing I did notice, however, is that some teams tended to do well in minor league playoffs, with Houston being an example. In two instances they had playoff teams at all four levels, and I think that was a harbinger of success. (The only other instance of the three was Arizona, and three seasons later they had a playoff team at the MLB level.)
Regardless, I would be forced to concede my contention is at best inconclusive because learning how to win takes a specific player more than a team approach.
Until next time, remember you can Buy Me a Coffee since I have a page there.