Pleasing predictions, 2023 edition
Seeing just how prescient I am. We'll know by the end of June.
Last year I tried this and it was fun to see how I ended up doing.
In the two years I’ve done this I went from a prediction of order to a prediction of overall record - well, this year I’m going to shoot for a record by half. I have a little more confidence in the first half, though, because there’s no way we can discern just how the 2023 amateur draft will affect each team’s chances in the second half. As aggressive as the Orioles are, for example, we may only have the cream of that crop for 12-18 games. But we need a crop that’s creamy based on what we have to work with.
Let’s look at the first half first, starting with the Southern Division.
Charleston (TB) 41-25
Fayetteville (Hou) 34-32
Myrtle Beach (Cubs) 32-34
Augusta (Atl) 30-36
Kannapolis (White Sox) 29-37
Columbia (KC) 26-40
That’s not much of a race as Charleston continues to look dominant. However, in the Northern Division it’s a much better contest that will go down to the wire.
Down East (Tex) 38-28
Carolina (Mil) 37-29
Salem (Bos) 37-29
Fredericksburg (Was) 35-31
Lynchburg (Cle) 34-32
Delmarva (Bal) 23-43
In case you’re wondering, the schedule for that week - as the first half ends in the middle of a six-game series - has Down East at Salem and Carolina hosting Lynchburg. It’s very possible the last game in Salem is for all the marbles, with the fans in Lynchburg hoping their team plays spoiler. (Delmarva is out of the way like a lapped NASCAR as we host Augusta that week.)
So it sets up a second half not unlike the first, although the ball is fuzzier because it doesn’t see who’s drafted and their impact. Based on what we know this is how it would shake out in the South:
Charleston (TB) 41-25
Fayetteville (Hou) 32-34 - wins playoff berth with overall 66-66 record
Myrtle Beach (Cubs) 32-34
Kannapolis (White Sox) 30-36
Augusta (Atl) 28-38
Columbia (KC) 28-38
I think Charleston would take care of business in the South, although I see it as a three-game series the RiverDogs win at home. And the North? It’s wild, too, because I have two teams that are evenly matched for the season:
Salem (Bos) 39-27 - wins “last 20” tiebreaker on 22nd game
Carolina (Mil) 39-27
Down East (Tex) 35-31
Fredericksburg (Was) 35-31
Lynchburg (Cle) 32-34
Delmarva (Bal) 25-41
And guess where that 22nd game is for Salem? Right here in our friendly confines. Beating up on us gave them the tiebreaker, while Carolina ties for the best overall record in the division (76-56) but nothing to show for it. Despite not having the home-field advantage, I see Salem winning the division in 3 games on Down East’s turf.
But I don’t see Salem winning it all, as Charleston remains the team to beat.
As for the Shorebirds, this may be the season they hit bottom as a 48-84 record would be the worst in franchise history. But help should be on the way as they improve their international program, which is apparently going to be a lot of our feedstock going forward. Watch how the DSL and Complex League squads do because that’s what I base a lot of our record on: we were 48-81 in 2022 because our Complex League teams combined to be 29-62 in 2021 and the 2021 DSL teams were 13-39 and 25-30. Perhaps that was a necessary sorting out of talent - we only had one Complex League team in 2022 that was 16-39 - but there was hope as the DSL squads were at least mediocre last season, a few games short of .500 combined. We’re not depending on a lot of other teams’ castoffs to fill our low minors anymore.
Regardless of record, I plan on having a lot of fun watching these guys. Maybe they’ll completely exceed my expectations and that #1 minor league system will give Delmarva a long, long-overdue pennant.