I was reading a recent article in Baseball America regarding the cut in the number of players who can be rostered in the minor leagues - the previous limit of 180 that came into effect for 2021 is now being pared to 165 - and I noticed a line which said that the Complex League schedules were being moved up. Previously the leagues ran on a schedule not unlike the old short-season rookie league schedule, beginning after the former date of the amateur draft in June and running through the end of August. In days past, Delmarva would occasionally get a player or two who excelled in those leagues at the tail end of their season so they could get a taste of the level they were expected to start at the next April.
With the complete revamping of the minor leagues and shifting of the Rule 4 Draft from its longtime early June date (just as the College World Series was in full swing) to its new home in mid-July, the new rules meant those players could get a few weeks in the Complex League to get their feet wet before ending the season with a full-season affiliate like Delmarva. It was like Christmas in August over the last couple seasons as all those college players the Orioles drafted would make life interesting in Delmarva over the last month of the season (unless they moved up a second time to Aberdeen.)
Now, by shifting the Complex League to a point where that season will be just about over by the time the draft is held, it means college players will likely make their pro debuts here unless the Orioles choose to withhold the drafted player entirely and allow them to begin their pro career in spring training the following year, either sending them to a shorter extended spring to start in the Complex League or starting them in a chilly Delmarva April. High school players who skip their college offers (and aren’t a talent like Jackson Holliday) will likely have to endure the winter wait before they start, where they will mix in with the international players being promoted from the Dominican Summer League.
But let’s go back to the 165-man limit, which has farm directors tearing their hair out. According to BA:
The biggest impact will come on the mound, where teams face a math problem.
Every team has to figure out how to fill roughly 4,800 innings in full-season leagues—1,300 at Triple-A, 1,200 at Double-A and 1,150 at each Class A level. And then they need another 600 in the Arizona or Florida Complex League.
Organizations have to spread an estimated 5,400 innings among 80 to 90 pitchers. If a team rosters 90 pitchers, it needs to average 60 innings per pitcher. If it uses 80, it needs each to average 67.5 innings.
If this gets to be a problem, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s not a call to make all games at the lower levels seven innings. It’s doubtful there will be more players added to the roster; after all, in the back of my mind I think the MLB organizations would like to someday combine all their Complex League and low-A operations in Florida or Arizona. (Some teams with A-ball affiliates in the Florida State League already do.) Those cities and towns in the remaining A-ball cities would likely be relegated to independent leagues, the college showcase leagues, or have no baseball at all.
It already happened with most of the towns where the short-season rookie leagues used to play, and after 2030 I wouldn’t be surprised if the next decade-long deal doesn’t make this prediction come true as a big savings to MLB teams that now have to house their minor league players in 120 different locations. The Florida State League already proves these teams can coexist in one place.
But, as for now, when the Orioles draft their new players later this summer, get ready for some serious roster changes right away at Delmarva as the team can’t give them much (if any) game action in the Complex League anymore.
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